Reformatting Hungary's opposition field in 2022–2025 as a challenge to Viktor Orbán's political regime

Abstract

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the transformation of Hungary's political landscape during the 2022–2025 period. It explores the transition from the crisis of traditional opposition forces following their 2022 election defeat to the emergence of a new pole of political influence centered around Péter Magyar and the TISZA party. The study highlights the substance and methods of Viktor Orbán’s "institutional engineering" (specifically gerrymandering, control over the electoral vertical, and media blockades) aimed at systematically limiting the agency of the regime's opponents. Particular attention is paid to the phenomenon of P. Magyar as a "third force" that utilizes methods of mirror populism and patriotic rhetoric to mobilize a disillusioned electorate. Based on sociological data, the research demonstrates the erosion of the ruling Fidesz party's electoral base in urbanized regions and among the youth. The paper reveals the government's strategy of "toxic polarization" used to discredit the opposition through narratives of "foreign interference" and the securitization of rhetoric (including allegations of links to Ukrainian intelligence). A specific emphasis is placed on analyzing the foreign policy course of the new opposition. It is established that Péter Magyar's stance on Ukraine is pragmatically restrained: while supporting Ukraine's sovereignty, he simultaneously opposes arms supplies and accelerated EU accession, a position dictated by the need to compete for the conservative voter. The conclusions underline that the opposition's electoral leadership in 2025 creates a "strategic window of opportunity" for resetting Ukrainian-Hungarian relations on the basis of constructive partnership in the event of a change in power following the 2026 elections.