Conflict potential of american-chinese relations: prospects of the use of nuclear weapons

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31558/2617-0248.2025.10.11

Keywords:

USA, China, conflict potential of US-China relations, nuclear weapons, nuclear conflict, nuclear deterrence, Taiwan, state sovereignty

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to analyze the conflict potential of US-China relations against the background of China's buildup of military power, including nuclear weapons. The article analyzes the official provisions of the American nuclear doctrine, the views of representatives of the political and expert community on the prospects of a nuclear conflict with the participation of the United States at the present stage, and the parallels between them. Special attention is paid to the scenarios of possible conflicts between the United States and China as a growing force capable of influencing the interests of the United States not only in the Asia-Pacific region (APR), but also in other regions of the world. The dynamics of changes in China's nuclear and non-nuclear arsenals and their possible roles in the transforming architecture of the non-proliferation regimes of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) are considered. The instability of the nuclear disarmament process and the fragility of international legal barriers to new technological factors are determined. The processes of preparation of the possible use of nuclear weapons by Beijing during the aggravation of the longest-running territorial dispute over Taiwan are highlighted, justifying this problem by the fact that it directly affects the issue of state sovereignty, territorial integrity and unity of the PRC, the Taiwan problem occupies the highest place in the hierarchy of China's national interests and belongs to the so-called "core interests" of China, which Beijing will defend at any cost and concessions on which are fundamentally impossible. It is revealed that the development of promising missile weapons may become a priority direction of US military policy in the context of the US-China confrontation in Southeast Asia in general, and, in particular, with China. It has been determined that due to these trends, the work of lobby groups in the United States is intensifying, promoting the development of new long-range missile weapons. The thesis that US-China relations have a potential risk of using nuclear weapons (NW), which are considered by American researchers as a sobering tool, has been developed.

Author Biography

K. M. Zorin , Воєнна академія імені Євгенія Березняка

к.політ.н., науковий співробітник

References

U.S.-China Trade Facts. Office of the United States Trade Representative. URL: https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china

Kissinger H. On China. Henry Kissinger. London : Penguin Books, 2012. 604 p

A Nuclear Posture Review for the Next Administration URL: https://www.heritage.org/sites/default/files/2024-07/SR287.pdf

Christensen T. The Advantages of an Assertive China: Responding to Beijing’s Abrasive Diplomacy. Brookings Institution. 2011. URL: http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2011/03_china_ christensen.aspx.

Downs E. China’s Role in the World: Is China a Responsible Stakeholder, Brookings Institution. August 4. 2006. 50 p.; Downs E. How Oil Fuels Sino-U.S. Fires, Brookings Institution. 2006. URL: http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2006/0904china_downs.aspx

Downs E. National Energy Security Depends on International Energy Security, Brookings Institution. 2006. URL: http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2006/0317china_downs.aspx

Prasad E., Gu G. An Awkward Dance: China and the United States. Brookings Institution. 2009. URL: http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2009/1111_us_china_prasad.aspx.

Пронь С. В. Міжнародні відносини та зовнішня політика. 1914–1991 роки: Навчальній посібник. Миколаїв: Вид-во МДГУ ім. Петра Могили, 2009. 140 C.

Шевчук О. В. Китай у зовнішньополітичній стратегії США (1990-ті – 2000-ні рр.). Наукові праці Чорноморського державного університету імені Петра Могили. Сер.: Політологія. 2010. Т. 131, Вип. 118. С.157–162.

Городня Н. Д. Східна Азія у зовнішній політиці США (1989–2013): монографія. К.: «Прінт-Сервіс», 2014. 528 C.

Мельник Т. А. Ядерне стримування в євроатлантичній системі безпеки.: дис. канд. політ. наук : 23.00.04. Київ, 2021. 231 С.

中 华 人 民 共 和 国 宪 法 (Конституция Китайской Народной Республики). 12.04.1982. Офиційний сайт Уряду КНР. URL: http://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2004/content_62714.ht m

中国的军事战略(全文)Воєнна стратегія Китаю (повний текст). 26.05.2015. Веб-сайт Миноборони КНР. URL: https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/2015-05/26/content_2868988.htm

Geist E. John A. How Might Artificial Intelligence Affect the Risk of Nuclear War? Santa Monica: RAND. 2018. URL: https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE296.html

Dobbins et al. Conflict with China: Prospects, Consequences, and Strategies for Deterrence. Santa Monica: RAND. 2011. URL: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/occasional_papers/2011/RAND_O P344.pdf

Christensen T. The Meaning of the Nuclear Evolution: China‘s Strategic Modernization and U.S.-China Security Relations. Journal of Strategic Studies. 2012. Vol. 35. No. 4.

Oswald R. U.S.-China Nuclear Posture Dialogue Stymied by Miscommunication, Experts Say // Nuclear Threat Initiative. 2011. 28 October. URL: http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/us-china-nuclear-posture-dialogue-stymiedby-miscommunication-experts-say/

Johnston A. China's New "Old Thinking": The Concept of Limited Deterrence. International Security. 1995-96. Vol. 20, N 3. P. 5-42.

Long D., Kelly T., Gompert D. Smarter Power, Stronger Partners, Volume II: Trends in Force Projection Against Potential Adversaries. Santa Monica, RAND. 2017. URL: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1359z1.html

Генерал США попередив своїх підлеглих, що через два роки можлива війна з Китаєм. URL: https://mezha.net/ua/bukvy/heneral-ssha-poperedyv-svoikh-pidlehlykh-shcho-cherez-dva-roky-mozhlyva-viina-z-kytaiem-wp

Kaufman A., Heartnett D. Managing Conflict: Examining Recent PLA Writings on Escalation Control. CAN. 2016. URL: https://www.cna.org/cna_files/pdf/DRM-2015-U-009963-Final3.pdf

Published

2025-02-03

How to Cite

[1]
Зорін , К.М. 2025. Conflict potential of american-chinese relations: prospects of the use of nuclear weapons. Bulletin of the Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University. Series Political sciences. (Feb. 2025), 65-71. DOI:https://doi.org/10.31558/2617-0248.2025.10.11.

Issue

Section

Політичні проблеми міжнародних систем та глобального розвитку